Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey expects Infinity Ward’s upcoming shooter to be the best-selling game of 2009.

In March, Activision revealed that signal of Duty 4: contemporary Warfare had sold 12 million copies after nearly 17 months on the market. whether one analyst is right, it might not take very towering for contemporary Warfare 2 to beat that mark.

In a note to investors today, Janco Partners’ Mike Hickey predicted that contemporary Warfare 2 would sell through to consumers 11.1 million copies in less than two months. He says the game can achieve that mark with the help of a ramped-up preorder campaign courtesy of Activision, the more-than-doubled size of the Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 installed bases since the release of the original contemporary Warfare, and the series’ massive fan base.

“On May 26 2009, Infinity Ward’s community manager Robert Bowling ‘fourzerotwo’ commented that signal of Duty 4 has by 13 million rare users

on Xbox 360,” Hickey explained. “A particularly impressive number considering an estimated 30 percent of Xbox’s installed base is not connected to Xbox Live. On January 8, 2009, Bowling estimated that there were by 4 million rare online users on the PS3 platform and by 10 million on the Xbox 360. We assume the PS3 strange users have now eclipsed 5 million based on Xbox 360 identified online user growth of 30 percent.”

That puts Hickey’s estimated online signal of Duty 4 gamers at 18 million. Assume that 30 percent of signal of Duty fans don’t take their systems online, and Hickey believes that the potential market for contemporary Warfare 2 consists of a whopping 25.7 million gamers.

Putting it bluntly, Hickey said, “We believe shout of Duty: contemporary Warfare 2 will likely be the largest video game release for
[calendar year] ‘09.”

contemporary Warfare 2 will release on the PC, Xbox 360, and PS3 November 10. For more on the title, check out GameSpot’s latest hands-on impressions.

Get the full write-up at GameSpot

June 13, 2009 · News, PC
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